So far 2010 has delivered one of the most worryingly dull grands prix of all time, and one of the most relentlessly action-packed – but which was the anomaly and which will set the trend for the rest of the season?
Naturally everyone is hoping that the processional restraint of Sakhir was the blip and that most of the races will be bursting with wheel to wheel entertainment like Melbourne was.
And this weekend at Sepang, we’ll get a good indication of what the rest of the season will look like.
The weather played a big part in the Australian GP drama, and residents of Kuala Lumpur know a lot about rain too.
When the clouds open over Sepang, they do so with a vengeance – as the early chaos in the 2001 Malaysian GP and last year’s monsoon-truncated race proved.
But the humidity means the track dries fast – a shower early in the 2004 race meant about a lap and a half of sliding before the circuit was suddenly bone dry again.
The forecast for this weekend currently looks ominous... a repeat of last year's early finish is certainly possible.
The first of the Herrmann Tilke tracks, Sepang isn’t as atmospheric as Melbourne, but the balance between fast corners and overtaking opportunities is about right, in fact probably better than at any other Tilke track bar Istanbul Park.
The fast and flowing corners at the far side of the circuit are a real challenge, even more so with the track now beginning to show its age and the bumps growing.
And the combination of two consecutive long, wide straights into tight but wide hairpins has proved ideal for close racing over the years, for as well as creating big, overtaking-friendly, braking zones, the layout gives the driver just overtaken a great chance to cut back in tight and respond at the next bend.
That doesn’t mean the races are always thrillers, but it does mean some wheel to wheel jousting is more likely than at most venues.
Melbourne’s weather left a major question unanswered: in a totally dry race, is the no-refuelling race format inevitably a recipe for tedium?
The theory behind the 2010 rules was that there would end up being close racing between drivers who had gambled on making worn tyres last to the flag, and drivers who had dived in for fresh rubber mid-race and were now much faster.
That didn’t happen in Bahrain – everyone played it safe and cruised around in a queue, nursing their rubber.
It did happen in Australia – but worryingly when the cars on fresh rubber caught those on worn Bridgestones, they appeared unable to pass – although this didn’t seem to be the case in the midfield, where there was plenty of late overtaking.
Also by that time Melbourne was fully dry, and without the aid of a slippery surface, its layout isn’t quite as conducive to overtaking, whereas Sepang’s massive straights/tight hairpins combination should make it harder to defend against a faster car, regardless of turbulence issues.
If your fading tyres aren’t giving you traction onto those long straights, you’re going to be in trouble when someone on new tyres charges onto your tail – assuming anyone has the confidence to risk an extra pit stop (and Sepang’s long pit lane could be a deterrent).
Back in 2005, when drivers had to make their tyres last a whole race, there was some excellent (and messy) racing at Sepang as some failed to keep their rubber alive as effectively as others.
More of the same would do nicely.
So on paper, Sepang’s spectacle ought to sit somewhere between Melbourne mayhem and Sakhir slumber.
The storylines developing down the field certainly deserve a good race for their next chapter, for a fascinating contest is brewing.
Red Bull has the out and out pace to dominate, but Sebastian Vettel’s car keeps falling apart and Mark Webber has lacked consistency.
That has given the steely Fernando Alonso an early points lead, but can he beat Vettel’s Red Bull in a straight fight if it lasts to the finish?
How will Lewis Hamilton respond to his high profile Melbourne tribulations, and to team-mate Jenson Button’s brilliant victory?
When is everything going to click for Michael Schumacher, who has so far been a long way shy of his greatest form, and can Nico Rosberg maintain his intra-team edge at Mercedes even when the legend in the other car finds his feet again?
That’s a particularly pertinent question in Malaysia, home of title sponsor Petronas.
Its heavy promotional efforts will make Mercedes just as much of a ‘home’ team as the locally-owned and backed Lotus team, which will give Malaysian test driver Fairuz Fauzy a run in Friday practice.
Robert Kubica’s brilliance and the team’s steady progress got Renault among the lead group in Australia, but in normal circumstances that squad should be found in a tight battle with Force India and Williams, while Sauber and Toro Rosso are not far behind.
And when is Sauber going to start looking like the team that stunned its rivals in testing, and when will Nico Hulkenberg live up to his ‘next big thing’ reputation?
So many tantalising storylines and so much expectation – but just one question at the forefront of everyone’s minds: can the Malaysian GP live up to everything Melbourne promised?
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