Wednesday 8 July 2009

German Grand Prix preview

After so many straightforward victories in 2009, it was cruelly ironic that when Jenson Button's season finally stuttered, it was in the event he most wanted to win that things went awry.

Sixth place was far less than Button had hoped for on home ground, and will probably irk him forever if this year proves to be his sole shot at glory - for it remains to be seen whether Brawn's dominance this season is the start of a new era or a blip while the usual big guns get their houses back in order.

Despite insisting pre-race that he would be content whatever happened at Silverstone as his points lead would remain ample even if he crashed out, Button was under huge pressure to give his home fans a win in what may or may not have been the track's Formula 1 swansong.

But now that patriotic spotlight turns on the man who took the glory in Britain – as the world championship heads to Sebastian Vettel's German homeland.

If anything, the pressure on Vettel at the Nurburgring will be even greater than the pressure on Button at Silverstone.

For one thing, Vettel is widely regarded as the only man who can maintain some tension in the 2009 title battle by eating into Button's points lead.

The Nurburgring will decide how realistic a prospect that is.

Did Red Bull take a massive step forward at Silverstone, or did it benefit from a rare off-weekend for Brawn?

Naturally the two teams' opinions are split on this.



Red Bull is adamant that its incessant development is paying off, and that not only did it thrive on Silverstone's ultra-quick bends – a major strength of the RB5 package all year – but that it was a Brawn-beater in the slow stuff where Button's team excels.

Conversely Ross Brawn pointed out that the low temperatures at Silverstone simply didn't agree with the BGP 001, preventing silky-smooth Button in particular from getting the rubber warm enough to work.

Given warmer weather, he insisted, his team will dominate again.

Don't expect the Nurburgring to provide the balmy conditions Brawn fancies though, for the German track is legendary for its changeable weather.

When it was last used for F1 in July 2007, the race had to be red-flagged after a monumental deluge...and it is rare for the weekend to pass without rain even when the track gets a summer date.

Whatever the weather, the Nurburgring is likely to see another private battle between Brawn and Red Bull.

Ferrari has made progress but remains baffled by how its car can look so quick in one session then plummet into the midfield later the same day – and has started to hint that if it appears its 2009 car's problems are impossible to solve, it might start cracking on with 2010 plans.

McLaren's recovery charge has stuttered before it really got underway, and Renault is showing little sign of a 2008-style resurgence.

Williams and Toyota have regained form in recent weeks but are coming from a long way back in both pace and points terms, while BMW has even more ground to recover even if its promised massive upgrade package this weekend is a step forward.

One team that is making undeniable progress though is Force India.

Adrian Sutil and Giancarlo Fisichella won't be snapping at the leaders' heels, but they are surely on the cusp of points after their team's recent strides.

If Force India maintains its momentum, and BMW improves enough to get Nick Heidfeld back in the top eight hunt, then all four of F1's Germans will have a legitimate shot at scoring on home turf.

The need for some patriotic success is the other major weight on Vettel's shoulders this weekend.

In the days when Michael Schumacher swept to title after title, German enthusiasm for F1 was such that the country drew huge, fervent crowds for two races a season.

But the nation's interest has dwindled since Schumacher retired, and its circuits' fortunes have nosedived as well, with Hockenheim's finances in a parlous state and the Nurburgring unwilling to host F1 every year (the two tracks currently alternate to share the financial burden) if its current partner track has to drop off the schedule.

Revitalising Germany's passion for F1 could help this state of affairs, and it is on Vettel's shoulders that this task falls as well.

The Red Bull star has been anointed both the 'new Schumacher' and the 'nice Schumacher' – seen by his countrymen as having all the talent of his record-shattering predecessor, along with a far more gregarious personality.

So Vettel's bulging 'to do' list is not for the faint-hearted: hunt down and overcome Button in the championship battle, revive a nation's passion for F1, and live up to your billing as the successor to arguably the sport's greatest ever driver.

That's a lot for a 22 year-old, even a sublimely talented 22-year-old with potentially the best car in the field underneath him, with only 34 GPs under his belt to take on, and that's why the German GP weekend is both a huge opportunity for Vettel to become a national hero and a genuine title contender, and a potentially crushing source of pressure and expectation.

It will be fascinating to see whether he wilts or thrive under such an intense spotlight, and no one will be more interested to see how he fares than Button, who could kill off the title battle if he pulls away from Vettel again this weekend – or could leave the Nurburgring a nervous man if his lead dwindles again.

No comments: